A deepening political crisis looms in 2025 in Myanmar as the civil war intensifies and the junta increases using airpower to stop rebel offences in several parts of the country. Without any political dialogue, which is highly unlikely to happen in the coming months and with the junta pushing for an election later this year, more violence and instabilities are expected in the coming weeks and months.

As a consequence of the ongoing conflict in the country, the United Nations warned of acute famine in Rakhine State later this year. The conflict affected food production and a blockade of supplies of food into the state imposed by the junta is likely to create additional challenges for the sustainability of food for the region’s nearly 2 million population.

The rebel groups continue to make major gains in territories across Myanmar. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) also known as the Kokang rebel group, a close ally of China celebrated its first Lunar New Year in Lashio, the commercial capital in Northern Shan State which it took over last August. However, its continuing control of the town is uncertain as China is putting pressure on the group to return the control of the town to the Min Aung Hlaing regime, as a part of a ceasefire deal Beijing brokered at the beginning of the year.

Click here to read full report