Two key developments that took place last October have contributed to the current economic troubles in Myanmar.
They are - announcements by the United States on the imposition of sanctions on Myanmar State-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MoGE), a key source of foreign exchange for the junta and other is the beginning of “Operation 1027”, which not only put the junta on the back foot militarily, but it also gives a major blow to the junta’s source of income. The military operation by the Three Brotherhood Alliance that started on 27 October led the junta to lose the major border trading towns with China to the rebel groups.
According to some experts, the income from the sales of oil and gas amounts to more than US$1.5 billion in the financial year 2020-2021. The border trade with China accounts for USD 3 billion in 2023, up to 40 percent of the country's overall border trade figure.
Since last October the junta also lost control of most of the border trading points along the Thai, Indian and more recently with Bangladesh, to different rebel groups. The military losses to the ethnic armies also led to the loss of more than USD 7 billion per year in total border trade between Myanmar and its neighbours.