The month of September this year perhaps would be remembered as one of the most devasting months for vulnerable civilians in Myanmar. The month saw the junta troops launch nearly 50 airstrikes in which nearly 100 civilians were killed[1].
They include 10 airstrikes on Lashio, the capital of Northern Shan State which is currently under the control of the Myanmar National Defense Army (MNDAA) or Kokang group since August. Also, the junta forces launched at least 5 airstrikes on Thandwe Town in Southern Rakhine State, which is under the control of the Arakan Army.
Similarly, a more intense conflict seems to be brewing in the country’s far north Kachin State, which borders China. The Kachin rebel group KIA now seized 10 towns mostly in Kachin State and in Northern Shan State. Military analysts are predicting that KIA may push its offensive to take control of the state capital Myitkyina.
These conflicts are taking place mostly on the Sino-Myanmar border and the position of Beijing on these events is as perplexing as ever. After the peace offer was issued by the junta this month China seems to be siding with the junta in Nay Pyi Taw and trying to control rebel groups in Northern Shan State to stop their offensives.
China also put pressure on its proxy rebel groups to sever their ties with the exiled Myanmar government, the National Unity Government (NUG).
The situation in the West where the Arakan Army (AA) is fighting the junta troops is somewhat different from the rest of the country. AA is now marching to the junta’s military base in Ann township. Since AA's motive for fighting the junta is purely based on nationalism, they are less concerned about China’s position as their key motive is to restore the pride of the Rakhine people and claim autonomous rights for the Rakhine people.