February 2025 marked a pivotal moment in Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, with significant legal and political developments, escalating armed resistance, and increasing human rights violations.
The Argentine court’s issuance of arrest warrants for Min Aung Hlaing and 24 senior military officials under universal jurisdiction represents a historic step toward accountability for the genocide against the Rohingya. This ruling follows the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor’s request for an arrest warrant in November 2024 and ongoing International Court of Justice (ICJ) proceedings in The Gambia v. Myanmar, which charges Myanmar with genocide. These cases mark a growing international effort to hold the junta accountable for atrocities committed against the Rohingya and other communities.
Meanwhile, violence inside Myanmar continues to escalate. Across the country, the military junta has intensified its use of indiscriminate airstrikes, mass arrests, enforced disappearances, and targeted killings. The junta’s reliance on pro-military militias, such as Pyu Saw Htee, has resulted in increased arson attacks on villages and civilian casualties. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) has expanded its control, sparking new concerns over the treatment of the Rohingya. The confiscation of Rohingya-owned homes in Buthidaung and Maungdaw by the AA and its accusations that Rohingya homeowners had links to "terrorist groups" have raised concerns of ethnic persecution. Meanwhile, the junta’s transfer of former Rohingya prisoners to military barracks in Rakhine State has fueled fears of forced conscription.
Myanmar’s political landscape also shifted with the formation of the Chin National Council, a new coalition of armed and political groups in Chin State, aiming to strengthen resistance efforts against the junta. This reflects the increasing fragmentation of Myanmar’s conflict, with ethnic resistance forces seizing more territory. Ethnic armed groups and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) made significant territorial gains in February, particularly in Karen, Kachin, and Mon States, further straining the junta's military capacity.